YoY Heatmap
Year-over-year returns by month · Quotes delayed up to 5 minutesA year-by-year, month-by-month heatmap of gold’s monthly returns, with each cell colored by the magnitude and direction of that month’s return. The chart reveals which years and months produced exceptional moves, which were quiet, and how the seasonal patterns play out in actual historical data versus their averages. The heatmap is the right way to visualize that ‘average’ returns mask very different outcomes year to year.
Analyst's Note
The heatmap exposes the limitations of average-based seasonality analysis. A ‘strong’ August on average can include several years of exceptional gains (1971, 1979, 2011, 2024) and several years of meaningful losses; the average is constructed from a wide distribution, not a stable pattern. The heatmap also reveals regime persistence: clusters of red months indicate sustained bear conditions, clusters of green indicate bull markets. For the analytical investor, the heatmap’s primary value is honestly accepting how variable monthly outcomes are — and how quickly the seasonal ‘pattern’ can be overwhelmed by a major macro event. The chart serves as a check on overconfidence in seasonal trades.
A year-by-year, month-by-month heatmap of gold’s monthly returns, with each cell colored by the magnitude and direction of that month’s return. The chart reveals which years and months produced exceptional moves, which were quiet, and how the seasonal patterns play out in actual historical data versus their averages. The heatmap is the right way to visualize that ‘average’ returns mask very different outcomes year to year.
Analyst's Note
The heatmap exposes the limitations of average-based seasonality analysis. A ‘strong’ August on average can include several years of exceptional gains (1971, 1979, 2011, 2024) and several years of meaningful losses; the average is constructed from a wide distribution, not a stable pattern. The heatmap also reveals regime persistence: clusters of red months indicate sustained bear conditions, clusters of green indicate bull markets. For the analytical investor, the heatmap’s primary value is honestly accepting how variable monthly outcomes are — and how quickly the seasonal ‘pattern’ can be overwhelmed by a major macro event. The chart serves as a check on overconfidence in seasonal trades.
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