Full Yield Curve
The term structure of US Treasury yieldsA snapshot of the US Treasury yield curve across all major maturities, from 3-month bills to 30-year bonds. Unlike the time-series charts elsewhere on the platform, this chart shows the term structure at a single point in time — what yield the market demands for each duration of lending. Toggle historical snapshots to see how the curve has shifted over the past year. A normal upward-sloping curve signals healthy growth expectations; an inverted curve (short rates above long rates) has preceded every recession since 1970.
Analyst's Note
The yield curve is the single most information-dense chart in macro analysis. Its shape encodes the market’s expectations for growth, inflation, and monetary policy simultaneously. A normal curve slopes upward: investors demand higher yields for longer maturities because of the additional inflation risk and duration risk. A flat curve signals uncertainty about the economic outlook — the market isn’t confident enough in growth to demand a term premium. An inverted curve signals that the market expects the current level of short-term rates to be unsustainable — meaning rate cuts are coming, which typically means a recession. Comparing curves across time reveals regime shifts: a curve that was steep six months ago but flat today is showing the market progressively pricing out growth expectations. A curve that was inverted three months ago but is steepening now may be signaling that rate cuts have begun or are imminent — which historically coincides with the onset of recession, not its end. The yield curve is not a timing tool; it is a regime identification tool. It tells you what environment you are in, which in turn determines which assets are likely to perform.
Data: US Treasury yields via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
A snapshot of the US Treasury yield curve across all major maturities, from 3-month bills to 30-year bonds. Unlike the time-series charts elsewhere on the platform, this chart shows the term structure at a single point in time — what yield the market demands for each duration of lending. Toggle historical snapshots to see how the curve has shifted over the past year. A normal upward-sloping curve signals healthy growth expectations; an inverted curve (short rates above long rates) has preceded every recession since 1970.
Analyst's Note
The yield curve is the single most information-dense chart in macro analysis. Its shape encodes the market’s expectations for growth, inflation, and monetary policy simultaneously. A normal curve slopes upward: investors demand higher yields for longer maturities because of the additional inflation risk and duration risk. A flat curve signals uncertainty about the economic outlook — the market isn’t confident enough in growth to demand a term premium. An inverted curve signals that the market expects the current level of short-term rates to be unsustainable — meaning rate cuts are coming, which typically means a recession. Comparing curves across time reveals regime shifts: a curve that was steep six months ago but flat today is showing the market progressively pricing out growth expectations. A curve that was inverted three months ago but is steepening now may be signaling that rate cuts have begun or are imminent — which historically coincides with the onset of recession, not its end. The yield curve is not a timing tool; it is a regime identification tool. It tells you what environment you are in, which in turn determines which assets are likely to perform.
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